Will Donald Trump say “Transgender” 7+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender” 7+ times at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 20, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (7+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 54¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Transgender 7+ times
- Probability
- 56% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…with that record. Turk voted to allow schools to turn your children transgender without informing the parents and with no parental consent. I didn't even…
…a commitment tonight that Ashley Ashley is not in favor of the transgender mutilization of your children. Can we get that commitment? You swear. I…
Counts: named speaker only
13 counted.
…in the entire country. It would be a disaster. She's a fanatical transgender activist. How the hell do you run in South Carolina? Am I…
…big, darling. You're going to win big. Well, you see, they're into transgender mutilization. Me personally, I could do without her. They like transgender mutilization…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Transgender 7+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 8 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Transgender 7+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 13 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Transgender 7+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Transgender 7+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender” 7+ times at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 20, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Transgender 7+ times” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Transgender 7+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/transgender-7plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=transgender%20%287%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP