Will Donald Trump say “Russia”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Russia” at 54 of 87 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 20, 2024 (62%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 71% (n=87, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Russia
- Probability
- 71% · n=87
- Settled
- 54/87 (62%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
they stopped the war probably should do that immediately with Ukraine and Russia I've never thought of I didn't think of it but we don't…
…actually. And the fact is, you know, we have more oil than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined. If and if you go back eight or…
…a wonderful man who, during the Biden administration, was taken hostage in Russia. They claimed things -- we won't get into that, but we thought…
…coming down fast. We have right and the United States without Venezuela, not including the United States has more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia
Well, I think what's happening is that Russia would like to get it done. I think that -- and, you know, Russia's a big machine.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Russia |  Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 10 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 10 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Russia |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 14, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 12, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Russia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Russia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Russia”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Russia” at 54 of 87 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 20, 2024 (62%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Russia” next time?
- 71%, from settlement history (n=87). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Russia’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/russia (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=russia · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP