Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in North Carolina, Oct 20, 2026
At the rally on Oct 20, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 56 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
56 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 88%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 77%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 74%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | 71%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 69%n=248 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 60%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 57%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Estate Tax / Death Tax | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Job 18+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lumbee | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 44%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Germany | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Island | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 39%n=184 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 36%n=343 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 32%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Veteran | Yes | 29%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 61%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Power Plant | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Social Security 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hegseth | No | 56%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 54%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 52%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 52%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| FEMA | No | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First / Gulf of America | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Two Percent / 2% | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fort Bragg | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Granddaughter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Helene | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 15+ times | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 40%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 38%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Electricity | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 37%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 34%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 26%n=267 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 24%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 18%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 16%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 16%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 9%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 7%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 5%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=523 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 15:23 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-20:rally-north-carolina · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-20:rally-north-carolina · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP