Will Donald Trump say “Ballroom”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ballroom” at 51 of 119 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=119, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

36%from settlement history only · n=119counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Ballroom

Probability
36% · n=119
Settled
51/119 (43%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

audience questionerotherDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 1:25:37In transcript

…a clean city. Can we admit that? Thank God you're building the ballroom. Thank God you're getting rid of those awful bike lanes. By the…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

QreporterRemarks in an Exchange With Reporters Upon Arrival From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland · Sep 23, 2026 · 1:07In transcript

Ballroom update. Can you give us a ballroom update? Everything is going up really fast.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 24, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo–
Sep 24, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes–
Sep 24, 2026BallroomKalshiYes–
Sep 21, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo–
Sep 21, 2026BallroomKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo0
Sep 17, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
Sep 13, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes9
Sep 13, 2026BallroomKalshiYes11
Sep 10, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
Sep 9, 2026BallroomKalshiYes8
Sep 6, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes5
Sep 6, 2026BallroomKalshiYes11
Aug 30, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes2
Aug 30, 2026BallroomKalshiYes2
Aug 23, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes23
Aug 23, 2026BallroomKalshiYes28
Aug 16, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 8 known appearances transcribed))
Aug 16, 2026BallroomKalshiYes2
Aug 10, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
Aug 9, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes7
Aug 9, 2026BallroomKalshiYes12
Aug 6, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
Aug 4, 2026BallroomKalshiNo–
Aug 2, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes2
Aug 2, 2026BallroomKalshiYes4
Jul 29, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes–
Jul 26, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes7
Jul 26, 2026BallroomKalshiYes7
Jul 24, 2026BallroomKalshiYes5
Jul 19, 2026BallroomKalshiYes1
Jul 12, 2026BallroomKalshiYes13
Jul 5, 2026BallroomKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed))
Jul 4, 2026BallroomKalshiNo–
Jun 28, 2026BallroomKalshiYes2
Jun 26, 2026BallroomKalshiYes1
Jun 25, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo0
Jun 24, 2026BallroomKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 24, 2026BallroomKalshiYes–
Jun 22, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
Jun 21, 2026BallroomKalshiYes1
Jun 18, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
Jun 15, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo–
Jun 14, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo–
Jun 14, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo0
Jun 14, 2026BallroomKalshiYes2
Jun 10, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
Jun 7, 2026BallroomKalshiYes3
Jun 7, 2026BallroomKalshiNo–
Jun 4, 2026BallroomKalshiNo0
May 31, 2026BallroomPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
May 31, 2026BallroomKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
May 27, 2026BallroomKalshiNo–
May 22, 2026BallroomKalshiNo–
May 21, 2026BallroomKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo–
May 19, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo–
May 19, 2026BallroomKalshiNo–
May 15, 2026BallroomPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Ballroom”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ballroom” at 51 of 119 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ballroom” next time?
36%, from settlement history (n=119). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ballroom’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ballroom (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ballroom · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP