Will Donald Trump say “Democrat”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Democrat” at 146 of 223 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (65%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=223, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

64%from settlement history only · n=223counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes yes no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Democrat

Probability
64% · n=223
Settled
146/223 (65%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 7 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 4:27In transcript

…the United States Senate. And we're going to defeat the radical left Democrats all across the country. And we're going to win a Republican House…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 12:42In transcript

…to use it. He's great. He's a great guy, too. That the Democrat party has just conceded her seat. that Elhan Nur say Elmei, her…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 11:39In transcript

…want to stop Annie from doing some terrible things, I call them Democrats. You know why their policy is so bad? Dum. I just switched…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 39:08In transcript

…scams have been uncovered in Maine, in California, and many other mostly Democrat run states. And it's in Republican areas, too, but it seems to…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 25:38In transcript

…and radical groups such as the Communist Party, USA, Antifa, and the Democrat Socialists of America. Communism will never be coming to America, but freedom…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 15, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Sep 28, 2026DemocratPolymarketYes–
Sep 28, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Sep 22, 2026DemocratKalshiNo1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 21, 2026DemocratKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026DemocratKalshiYes3
Sep 17, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Sep 17, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026DemocratKalshiYes3
Sep 11, 2026DemocratKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026DemocratPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Sep 10, 2026DemocratKalshiYes8
Sep 8, 2026DemocratPolymarketNo0
Sep 8, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Sep 3, 2026DemocratKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Aug 30, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Aug 28, 2026DemocratKalshiYes4
Aug 25, 2026DemocratKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026DemocratKalshiYes1
Aug 24, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Aug 20, 2026DemocratKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 13, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Aug 11, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Aug 10, 2026DemocratKalshiYes3
Aug 10, 2026DemocratKalshiYes1
Aug 6, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Aug 6, 2026DemocratKalshiYes1
Aug 5, 2026DemocratKalshiYes13
Aug 4, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Aug 3, 2026DemocratPolymarketYes4
Aug 3, 2026DemocratKalshiYes4
Jul 31, 2026DemocratKalshiYes2
Jul 30, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026DemocratPolymarketNo–
Jul 29, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Jul 29, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026DemocratPolymarketYes–
Jul 28, 2026DemocratPolymarketYes1
Jul 28, 2026DemocratPolymarketNo0
Jul 28, 2026DemocratKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–
Jul 27, 2026DemocratKalshiYes11
Jul 24, 2026DemocratPolymarketYes1
Jul 24, 2026DemocratKalshiYes1
Jul 24, 2026DemocratKalshiYes4
Jul 23, 2026DemocratPolymarketNo0
Jul 23, 2026DemocratPolymarketNo0
Jul 23, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Jul 23, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Jul 17, 2026DemocratKalshiNo0
Jul 16, 2026DemocratKalshiYes4
Jul 14, 2026DemocratKalshiNo–
Jul 14, 2026DemocratKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Democrat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Democrat” at 146 of 223 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (65%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Democrat” next time?
64%, from settlement history (n=223). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Democrat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/democrat (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=democrat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP