FOMC press conference
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 884 word markets on the FOMC press conference series since 2024, on 214 different words; most reliably said: “Restrictive” (12 of 12). Next: Press conference, Oct 28, 2026 (63 words listed).
Next: Press conference ·
63 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: role: fed chair Polymarket: named speaker only
Kalshi
Polymarket| Word | Sep 17 ’25conference | Oct 29conference | Dec 10conference | Jan 28 ’26conference | Mar 18conference | Apr 29conference | Jun 17conference | Jul 29conference | Sep 16latest | Last 9 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restrictiveevery time | 2 times: Restrictive, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 3 times: Restrictive, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled yes: Restrictive, Dec 10 conference | 2 times: Restrictive, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 9 times: Restrictive, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 4 times: Restrictive, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Restrictive, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Restrictive, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Restrictive, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 9/9100% | 12/12100% | 91%n=12 from settlement history | 80¢ Kalshi |
| Uncertaintyevery time | Not listed: Uncertainty, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Uncertainty, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Uncertainty, Dec 10 conference | 1 time: Uncertainty, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Uncertainty, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 3 times: Uncertainty, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Uncertainty, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Uncertainty, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Uncertainty, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 6/6100% | 7/7100% | 87%n=7 from settlement history | 78¢ Kalshi |
| Central Bankevery time | Not listed: Central Bank, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Central Bank, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Central Bank, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Central Bank, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 1 time: Central Bank, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 9 times: Central Bank, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 8 times: Central Bank, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Central Bank, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 6 times: Central Bank, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 5/5100% | 5/5100% | 85%n=5 from settlement history | 94¢ Kalshi |
| Shockevery time | Not listed: Shock, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Shock, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Shock, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Shock, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 14 times: Shock, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 12 times: Shock, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Shock, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 10 times: Shock, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Shock, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 5/5100% | 5/5100% | 85%n=5 from settlement history | 80¢ Kalshi |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 3 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 6 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 10 conference | 6 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 4 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 29 conference | 6 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 4 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 3 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 8/989% | 9/1275% | 77%n=12 from settlement history | 82¢ Kalshi |
| Good Day | Not listed: Good Day, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Good Day, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Good Day, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Good Day, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Good Day, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Good Day, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Good Day, Jun 17 conference | 1 time: Good Day, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Good Day, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 73%n=2 from settlement history | 94¢ Kalshi |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence3+ times | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Oct 29 conference | 8 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 4 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Sep 16 conference | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 70%n=2 from settlement history | 46¢ Polymarket |
| Productivity | Not listed: Productivity, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Productivity, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Productivity, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Productivity, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Productivity, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Productivity, Apr 29 conference | 5 times: Productivity, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 3 times: Productivity, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Productivity, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 3/475% | 3/475% | 67%n=4 from settlement history | 81¢ Kalshi |
| Oil | Not listed: Oil, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Oil, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Oil, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Oil, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 14 times: Oil, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 7 times: Oil, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Oil, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Oil, Jul 29 conference | 1 time: Oil, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 4/580% | 4/580% | 67%n=5 from settlement history | 57¢ Kalshi |
| Projection | 6 times: Projection, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Projection, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled yes: Projection, Dec 10 conference | 1 time: Projection, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 3 times: Projection, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Projection, Apr 29 conference | 4 times: Projection, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Projection, Jul 29 conference | 4 times: Projection, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 7/978% | 10/1377% | 65%n=13 from settlement history | 36¢ Kalshi |
| Independent / Independence | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Jul 29 conference | 3 times: Independent / Independence, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 68¢ Kalshi |
| Inflation Expectation | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Inflation Expectation, Jul 29 conference | 1 time: Inflation Expectation, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 63¢ Kalshi |
| Pandemic | 2 times: Pandemic, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Pandemic, Oct 29 conference | 3 times: Pandemic, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Pandemic, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 4 times: Pandemic, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 5 times: Pandemic, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Pandemic, Jun 17 conference | 1 time: Pandemic, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Pandemic, Sep 16 conference | 6/967% | 7/1070% | 56%n=10 from settlement history | 30¢ Kalshi |
| Good Afternoon | 1 time: Good Afternoon, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Good Afternoon, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Good Afternoon, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Good Afternoon, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Good Afternoon, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Good Afternoon, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Good Afternoon, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Good Afternoon, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Good Afternoon, Sep 16 conference | 6/967% | 14/1878% | 55%n=18 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
| Credit | 1 time: Credit, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 5 times: Credit, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled no: Credit, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Credit, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Credit, Mar 18 conference | 1 time: Credit, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Credit, Jun 17 conference | 1 time: Credit, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 3 times: Credit, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 5/956% | 7/1354% | 54%n=13 from settlement history | 52¢ Kalshi |
| Balance Sheet | 3 times: Balance Sheet, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 19 times: Balance Sheet, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled yes: Balance Sheet, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Balance Sheet, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Balance Sheet, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Balance Sheet, Apr 29 conference | 5 times: Balance Sheet, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Balance Sheet, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Balance Sheet, Sep 16 conference | 5/956% | 9/1369% | 52%n=13 from settlement history | 66¢ Kalshi |
| President | Not listed: President, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: President, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: President, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: President, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: President, Mar 18 conference | 3 times: President, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: President, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 0 times: President, Jul 29 conference | 2 times: President, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 3/650% | 3/650% | 51%n=6 from settlement history | 56¢ Kalshi |
| Inflation20+ times | Not listed: Inflation 20+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Inflation 20+ times, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation 20+ times, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Inflation 20+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Inflation 20+ times, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Inflation 20+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation 20+ times, Jun 17 conference | 28 times: Inflation 20+ times, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 18 times: Inflation 20+ times, Sep 16 conference, below the threshold | 1/250% | 1/250% | 45%n=2 from settlement history | 46¢ Polymarket |
| CapEx / Capital Expenditurenew | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 73¢ Polymarket |
| Conflict / Middle Eastnew | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Conflict / Middle East, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 64¢ Polymarket |
| Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrencynew | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 12¢ Polymarket |
| Good Questionnew | Not listed: Good Question, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Good Question, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 84¢ Polymarket |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gasnew | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 75¢ Polymarket |
| Oversightnew | Not listed: Oversight, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Oversight, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 29¢ Polymarket |
| Pandemic / Recessionnew | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Pandemic / Recession, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 28¢ Polymarket |
| Payrollnew | Not listed: Payroll, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Payroll, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 38¢ Polymarket |
| President / Trumpnew | Not listed: President / Trump, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: President / Trump, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 70¢ Polymarket |
| Pressure / Stagflationnew | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Pressure / Stagflation, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 69¢ Polymarket |
| Pricenew 30+ times | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Price 30+ times, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 71¢ Polymarket |
| SI / Super Intelligencenew | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 37¢ Polymarket |
| Soft / Softeningnew | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Soft / Softening, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 28¢ Polymarket |
| Unchanged / Dissentnew | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Unchanged / Dissent, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 20¢ Polymarket |
| Family Fight / Family Feud | Not listed: Family Fight / Family Feud, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Family Fight / Family Feud, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Family Fight / Family Feud, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Family Fight / Family Feud, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Family Fight / Family Feud, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Family Fight / Family Feud, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Family Fight / Family Feud, Jun 17 conference | 4 times: Family Fight / Family Feud, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Family Fight / Family Feud, Sep 16 conference | 1/250% | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history | 40¢ Kalshi |
| Anchor / Anchored | Not listed: Anchor / Anchored, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Anchor / Anchored, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Anchor / Anchored, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Anchor / Anchored, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 3 times: Anchor / Anchored, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Anchor / Anchored, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Anchor / Anchored, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Anchor / Anchored, Jul 29 conference | 1 time: Anchor / Anchored, Sep 16 conference, counts as said | 2/540% | 2/540% | 40%n=5 from settlement history | 50¢ Kalshi |
| Unchanged | 0 times: Unchanged, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Unchanged, Oct 29 conference | 1 time: Unchanged, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Unchanged, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Unchanged, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Unchanged, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Unchanged, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Unchanged, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Unchanged, Sep 16 conference | 4/944% | 4/944% | 39%n=9 from settlement history | 29¢ Kalshi |
| Dollar | Not listed: Dollar, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Dollar, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Dollar, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Dollar, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 2 times: Dollar, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Dollar, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Dollar, Jun 17 conference | 2 times: Dollar, Jul 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Dollar, Sep 16 conference | 2/540% | 2/540% | 37%n=5 from settlement history | 41¢ Kalshi |
| Commoditynew | Not listed: Commodity, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Commodity, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 40¢ Kalshi |
| Geopoliticalnew | Not listed: Geopolitical, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Geopolitical, Sep 16 conference | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 57¢ Kalshi |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 5 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 16 conference | 3/838% | 3/838% | 28%n=8 from settlement history | 6¢ Kalshi |
| Software | Not listed: Software, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Software, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Software, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Software, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Software, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Software, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Software, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Software, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Software, Sep 16 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 16¢ Polymarket |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | 0 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 3 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 5 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas, Sep 16 conference | 2/922% | 2/1217% | 23%n=12 from settlement history | 21¢ Kalshi |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Iran, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Iran, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Iran, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Iran, Mar 18 conference | 1 time: Iran, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Iran, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Iran, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Iran, Sep 16 conference | 1/520% | 1/520% | 22%n=5 from settlement history | 12¢ Kalshi |
| Diesel | Not listed: Diesel, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Diesel, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Diesel, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Diesel, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Diesel, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Diesel, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Diesel, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Diesel, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Diesel, Sep 16 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 8¢ Kalshi |
| Japan / Japanese / Yen | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Japan / Japanese / Yen, Sep 16 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 2¢ Kalshi |
| Risk Management | Not listed: Risk Management, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Risk Management, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Risk Management, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Risk Management, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Risk Management, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Risk Management, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Risk Management, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Risk Management, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Risk Management, Sep 16 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 12¢ Kalshi |
| Recession | 0 times: Recession, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Recession, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Recession, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Recession, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 1 time: Recession, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Recession, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Recession, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Recession, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Recession, Sep 16 conference | 1/911% | 5/1533% | 20%n=15 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
| QT / Quantitative Tightening | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Oct 29 conference | Settled yes: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: QT / Quantitative Tightening, Sep 16 conference | 1/911% | 3/1323% | 17%n=13 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
| Egg | 0 times: Egg, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Egg, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Egg, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Egg, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Egg, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Egg, Apr 29 conference | 2 times: Egg, Jun 17 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Egg, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Egg, Sep 16 conference | 1/911% | 1/128% | 17%n=12 from settlement history | 4¢ Kalshi |
| Tax | 0 times: Tax, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Tax, Oct 29 conference | Settled yes: Tax, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Tax, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Tax, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Tax, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Tax, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Tax, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Tax, Sep 16 conference | 1/911% | 2/1020% | 17%n=10 from settlement history | 6¢ Kalshi |
| Renovation | Not listed: Renovation, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Renovation, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Renovation, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Renovation, Jan 28 ’26 conference (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes) | 0 times: Renovation, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Renovation, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Renovation, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Renovation, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Renovation, Sep 16 conference | 0/60% | 1/714% | 16%n=7 from settlement history | 2¢ Kalshi |
| Softening | Not listed: Softening, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Softening, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Softening, Dec 10 conference | 3 times: Softening, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Softening, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Softening, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Softening, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Softening, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Softening, Sep 16 conference | 1/714% | 1/714% | 16%n=7 from settlement history | 18¢ Kalshi |
| Stagflation | 0 times: Stagflation, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Stagflation, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Stagflation, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Stagflation, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 5 times: Stagflation, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Stagflation, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Stagflation, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Stagflation, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Stagflation, Sep 16 conference | 1/911% | 1/1010% | 16%n=10 from settlement history | 4¢ Kalshi |
| Probability | 1 time: Probability, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Probability, Oct 29 conference | 0 times: Probability, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Probability, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Probability, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Probability, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Probability, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Probability, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Probability, Sep 16 conference | 1/911% | 1/911% | 12%n=9 from settlement history | 12¢ Kalshi |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrencynever said | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Sep 16 conference | 0/30% | 0/60% | 9%n=6 from settlement history | 2¢ Kalshi |
| Trump | 0 times: Trump, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Trump, Oct 29 conference | 0 times: Trump, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Trump, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Trump, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Trump, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Trump, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Trump, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Trump, Sep 16 conference | 0/90% | 1/186% | 9%n=18 from settlement history | 6¢ Kalshi |
| Dissent | Not listed: Dissent, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 1 time: Dissent, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled no: Dissent, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Dissent, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Dissent, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Dissent, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Dissent, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Dissent, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Dissent, Sep 16 conference | 1/812% | 1/812% | 8%n=8 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
| ADPnever said | Not listed: ADP, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: ADP, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: ADP, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: ADP, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: ADP, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: ADP, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: ADP, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: ADP, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: ADP, Sep 16 conference | 0/60% | 0/60% | 8%n=6 from settlement history | 2¢ Kalshi |
| Volatilitynever said | 0 times: Volatility, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Volatility, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Volatility, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Volatility, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Volatility, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Volatility, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Volatility, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Volatility, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Volatility, Sep 16 conference | 0/90% | 0/90% | 6%n=9 from settlement history | 9¢ Kalshi |
| Goldnever said | 0 times: Gold, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Gold, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Gold, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Gold, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Gold, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Gold, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Gold, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Gold, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Gold, Sep 16 conference | 0/90% | 0/100% | 6%n=10 from settlement history | 4¢ Kalshi |
| National Debtnever said | 0 times: National Debt, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: National Debt, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: National Debt, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: National Debt, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: National Debt, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: National Debt, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: National Debt, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: National Debt, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: National Debt, Sep 16 conference | 0/90% | 0/100% | 6%n=10 from settlement history | 2¢ Kalshi |
| QE / Quantitative Easingnever said | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: QE / Quantitative Easing, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: QE / Quantitative Easing, Sep 16 conference | 0/90% | 0/100% | 6%n=10 from settlement history | 7¢ Kalshi |
| Bitcoinnever said | 0 times: Bitcoin, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Bitcoin, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Bitcoin, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Bitcoin, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Bitcoin, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Bitcoin, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Bitcoin, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Bitcoin, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Bitcoin, Sep 16 conference | 0/90% | 0/120% | 5%n=12 from settlement history | 2¢ Kalshi |
| Consumer Confidencenever said | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Sep 17 ’25 conference | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Consumer Confidence, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Consumer Confidence, Sep 16 conference | 0/90% | 0/120% | 5%n=12 from settlement history | 3¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 196, most settled first · page 1 of 3| Word | Sep 17 ’25conference | Oct 24remarks | Oct 29conference | Dec 10conference | Jan 28 ’26conference | Mar 18conference | Apr 29conference | Jun 17conference | Jul 29conference | Sep 16latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation40+ times | 50 times: Inflation 40+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Oct 24 remarks | 49 times: Inflation 40+ times, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | 62 times: Inflation 40+ times, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 32 times: Inflation 40+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference, below the threshold | 50 times: Inflation 40+ times, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 33 times: Inflation 40+ times, Apr 29 conference, below the threshold | 19 times: Inflation 40+ times, Jun 17 conference, below the threshold | 28 times: Inflation 40+ times, Jul 29 conference, below the threshold | 18 times: Inflation 40+ times, Sep 16 conference, below the threshold | 4/944% | 9/1560% | 40%n=15 from settlement history |
| Inflation50+ times | 50 times: Inflation 50+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Oct 24 remarks | 49 times: Inflation 50+ times, Oct 29 conference, below the threshold | 62 times: Inflation 50+ times, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 32 times: Inflation 50+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference, below the threshold | 50 times: Inflation 50+ times, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 33 times: Inflation 50+ times, Apr 29 conference, below the threshold | 19 times: Inflation 50+ times, Jun 17 conference, below the threshold | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Sep 16 conference | 3/743% | 6/1346% | 40%n=13 from settlement history |
| Inflation60+ times | 50 times: Inflation 60+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference, below the threshold | Not listed: Inflation 60+ times, Oct 24 remarks | 49 times: Inflation 60+ times, Oct 29 conference, below the threshold | 62 times: Inflation 60+ times, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 32 times: Inflation 60+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference, below the threshold | 50 times: Inflation 60+ times, Mar 18 conference, below the threshold | 33 times: Inflation 60+ times, Apr 29 conference, below the threshold | 19 times: Inflation 60+ times, Jun 17 conference, below the threshold | Not listed: Inflation 60+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation 60+ times, Sep 16 conference | 1/714% | 2/1217% | 19%n=12 from settlement history |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 29 conference | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 16 conference | 0/50% | 2/1118% | 16%n=11 from settlement history |
| Soft Landingnever said | 0 times: Soft Landing, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Soft Landing, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Soft Landing, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Soft Landing, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Soft Landing, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Soft Landing, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Soft Landing, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Soft Landing, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Soft Landing, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Soft Landing, Sep 16 conference | 0/60% | 0/100% | 8%n=10 from settlement history |
| Median | 5 times: Median, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Median, Oct 24 remarks | 1 time: Median, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled yes: Median, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Median, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 5 times: Median, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Median, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Median, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Median, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Median, Sep 16 conference | 4/667% | 5/956% | 50%n=9 from settlement history |
| Goods inflation | 4 times: Goods inflation, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Goods inflation, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Goods inflation, Oct 29 conference | Settled yes: Goods inflation, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Goods inflation, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 4 times: Goods inflation, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Goods inflation, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Goods inflation, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Goods inflation, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Goods inflation, Sep 16 conference | 3/933% | 3/933% | 27%n=9 from settlement history |
| Dot Plot | 1 time: Dot Plot, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Dot Plot, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Dot Plot, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Dot Plot, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Dot Plot, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Dot Plot, Mar 18 conference | 2 times: Dot Plot, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Dot Plot, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Dot Plot, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Dot Plot, Sep 16 conference | 2/633% | 2/922% | 30%n=9 from settlement history |
| Yield Curvenever said | 0 times: Yield Curve, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Yield Curve, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Yield Curve, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Yield Curve, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Yield Curve, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Yield Curve, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Yield Curve, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Yield Curve, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Yield Curve, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Yield Curve, Sep 16 conference | 0/60% | 0/90% | 8%n=9 from settlement history |
| Balance of Riskevery time | 4 times: Balance of Risk, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Balance of Risk, Oct 24 remarks | 4 times: Balance of Risk, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled yes: Balance of Risk, Dec 10 conference | 2 times: Balance of Risk, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Balance of Risk, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Balance of Risk, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Balance of Risk, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Balance of Risk, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Balance of Risk, Sep 16 conference | 5/5100% | 8/8100% | 84%n=8 from settlement history |
| Expectationevery time | Not listed: Expectation, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Expectation, Oct 24 remarks | 6 times: Expectation, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled yes: Expectation, Dec 10 conference | 10 times: Expectation, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 11 times: Expectation, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 3 times: Expectation, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Expectation, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Expectation, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Expectation, Sep 16 conference | 5/5100% | 8/8100% | 85%n=8 from settlement history |
| Tariffevery time | Not listed: Tariff, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff, Sep 16 conference | – | 8/8100% | 75%n=8 from settlement history |
| Trade War | 0 times: Trade War, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Trade War, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Trade War, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Trade War, Dec 10 conference | 1 time: Trade War, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Trade War, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Trade War, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Trade War, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Trade War, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Trade War, Sep 16 conference | 1/617% | 1/812% | 21%n=8 from settlement history |
| Layoff | Not listed: Layoff, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Layoff, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Layoff, Oct 29 conference | 4 times: Layoff, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Layoff, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Layoff, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Layoff, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Layoff, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Layoff, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Layoff, Sep 16 conference | 4/757% | 4/757% | 43%n=7 from settlement history |
| Tariff Inflation | 0 times: Tariff Inflation, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Oct 24 remarks | 2 times: Tariff Inflation, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | 3 times: Tariff Inflation, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Tariff Inflation, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 2 times: Tariff Inflation, Mar 18 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Tariff Inflation, Apr 29 conference | 0 times: Tariff Inflation, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Sep 16 conference | 4/757% | 4/757% | 48%n=7 from settlement history |
| Beige Book | 0 times: Beige Book, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Settled no: Beige Book, Oct 24 remarks | 3 times: Beige Book, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Settled no: Beige Book, Dec 10 conference | 1 time: Beige Book, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Beige Book, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Beige Book, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Beige Book, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Beige Book, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Beige Book, Sep 16 conference | 2/633% | 2/729% | 35%n=7 from settlement history |
| Chinanever said | Not listed: China, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: China, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: China, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: China, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: China, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: China, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: China, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: China, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: China, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: China, Sep 16 conference | 0/10% | 0/60% | 18%n=6 from settlement history |
| Fort Knoxnever said | 0 times: Fort Knox, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Fort Knox, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Fort Knox, Sep 16 conference | 0/20% | 0/60% | 13%n=6 from settlement history |
| Pardonnever said | 0 times: Pardon, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Pardon, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Pardon, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Pardon, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Pardon, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Pardon, Mar 18 conference | 0 times: Pardon, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Pardon, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Pardon, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Pardon, Sep 16 conference | 0/60% | 0/60% | 10%n=6 from settlement history |
| Energyevery time | 1 time: Energy, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Energy, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Energy, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Energy, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Energy, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Energy, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Energy, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Energy, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Energy, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Energy, Sep 16 conference | 1/1100% | 5/5100% | 74%n=5 from settlement history |
| Slowdown / Slow Down | Not listed: Slowdown / Slow Down, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Slowdown / Slow Down, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Slowdown / Slow Down, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Slowdown / Slow Down, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Slowdown / Slow Down, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Slowdown / Slow Down, Mar 18 conference | 2 times: Slowdown / Slow Down, Apr 29 conference, counts as said | 0 times: Slowdown / Slow Down, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Slowdown / Slow Down, Jul 29 conference | 0 times: Slowdown / Slow Down, Sep 16 conference | 1/520% | 1/520% | 22%n=5 from settlement history |
| Anchornever said | 0 times: Anchor, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Anchor, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Anchor, Oct 29 conference | Settled no: Anchor, Dec 10 conference | 0 times: Anchor, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Anchor, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Anchor, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Anchor, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Anchor, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Anchor, Sep 16 conference | 0/40% | 0/50% | 12%n=5 from settlement history |
| Tariff5+ times | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Sep 16 conference | – | 3/475% | 61%n=4 from settlement history |
| Obvious | 1 time: Obvious, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Obvious, Oct 24 remarks | 0 times: Obvious, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Obvious, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Obvious, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Obvious, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Obvious, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Obvious, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Obvious, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Obvious, Sep 16 conference | 1/250% | 1/425% | 38%n=4 from settlement history |
| Tariff15+ times | 8 times: Tariff 15+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference, below the threshold | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Oct 24 remarks | 12 times: Tariff 15+ times, Oct 29 conference, below the threshold | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Tariff 15+ times, Sep 16 conference | 0/20% | 1/425% | 31%n=4 from settlement history |
| Employment / Unemployment20+ times | 32 times: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Oct 29 conference | 24 times: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Employment / Unemployment 20+ times, Sep 16 conference | 2/2100% | 3/3100% | 73%n=3 from settlement history |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Sep 16 conference | – | 3/3100% | 67%n=3 from settlement history |
| Sorry | Not listed: Sorry, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Sorry, Oct 24 remarks | 1 time: Sorry, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Sorry, Dec 10 conference, counts as said | 1 time: Sorry, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Sorry, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Sorry, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Sorry, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Sorry, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Sorry, Sep 16 conference | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 75%n=3 from settlement history |
| Unemployment8+ times | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Unemployment 8+ times, Sep 16 conference | – | 3/3100% | 67%n=3 from settlement history |
| Comment | 2 times: Comment, Sep 17 ’25 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Comment, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Comment, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Comment, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Comment, Jan 28 ’26 conference | 0 times: Comment, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Comment, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Comment, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Comment, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Comment, Sep 16 conference | 1/250% | 2/367% | 49%n=3 from settlement history |
| Spending | Not listed: Spending, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Spending, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Spending, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Spending, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Spending, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Spending, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Spending, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Spending, Jun 17 conference | 0 times: Spending, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Spending, Sep 16 conference | 0/10% | 2/367% | 33%n=3 from settlement history |
| Cut7+ times | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Cut 7+ times, Sep 16 conference | – | 1/333% | 38%n=3 from settlement history |
| Job15+ times | Not listed: Job 15+ times, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Job 15+ times, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Job 15+ times, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Job 15+ times, Dec 10 conference | 17 times: Job 15+ times, Jan 28 ’26 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Job 15+ times, Mar 18 conference | 11 times: Job 15+ times, Apr 29 conference, below the threshold | 10 times: Job 15+ times, Jun 17 conference, below the threshold | Not listed: Job 15+ times, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Job 15+ times, Sep 16 conference | 1/333% | 1/333% | 34%n=3 from settlement history |
| Real Wage | Not listed: Real Wage, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Real Wage, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Real Wage, Sep 16 conference | – | 1/333% | 37%n=3 from settlement history |
| Default | Not listed: Default, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Default, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Default, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Default, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Default, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Default, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Default, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Default, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Default, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Default, Sep 16 conference | – | 0/30% | 21%n=3 from settlement history |
| Downbeat | 0 times: Downbeat, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Downbeat, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Downbeat, Sep 16 conference | 0/10% | 0/30% | 23%n=3 from settlement history |
| Data | Not listed: Data, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Data, Oct 24 remarks | 30 times: Data, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Data, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Data, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Data, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Data, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Data, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Data, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Data, Sep 16 conference | 1/1100% | 2/2100% | 62%n=2 from settlement history |
| Growth | Not listed: Growth, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Growth, Oct 24 remarks | 8 times: Growth, Oct 29 conference, counts as said | Not listed: Growth, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Growth, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Growth, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Growth, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Growth, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Growth, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Growth, Sep 16 conference | 1/1100% | 2/2100% | 62%n=2 from settlement history |
| Immigration | Not listed: Immigration, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Immigration, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Immigration, Sep 16 conference | – | 2/2100% | 59%n=2 from settlement history |
| Inflation | Not listed: Inflation, Sep 17 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Inflation, Oct 24 remarks | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation, Dec 10 conference | Not listed: Inflation, Jan 28 ’26 conference | Not listed: Inflation, Mar 18 conference | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation, Jun 17 conference | Not listed: Inflation, Jul 29 conference | Not listed: Inflation, Sep 16 conference | 1/1100% | 2/2100% | 56%n=2 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 757 of 761 settled words resolved (99.5%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? | Official transcript | 70 | 20 yes · 50 no | 69/69 (100%) |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? | Official transcript | 80 | 27 yes · 53 no | 79/79 (100%) |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? | Official transcript | 76 | 22 yes · 54 no | 74/75 (99%) |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Powell say during his April press conference? | Official transcript | 72 | 25 yes · 47 no | 72/72 (100%) |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Powell say during his March press conference? | Official transcript | 89 | 37 yes · 52 no | 89/89 (100%) |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Powell say during his January press conference? | Official transcript | 61 | 20 yes · 40 no | 59/60 (98%) |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? | Official transcript | 65 | 31 yes · 32 no | 22/22 (100%) |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? | Official transcript | 60 | 23 yes · 37 no | 60/60 (100%) |
| Oct 24, 2025 | RemarksWhat will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? | no transcript | 20 | 4 yes · 16 no | – |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? | Official transcript | 58 | 25 yes · 32 no | 57/57 (100%) |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat will the Federal Reserve Chair say at the July press conference? | Official transcript | 48 | 23 yes · 25 no | 48/48 (100%) |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat will Powell say during his Jun 2025 press conference? | Official transcript | 51 | 20 yes · 31 no | 50/51 (98%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/fomc-press-conference · words: /api/v1/history?entity=fomc-press-conference · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP