Will “Central Bank” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Central Bank” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 85% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 7.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 94¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Central Bank
- Probability
- 85% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
6 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Asheville at the G-20 meeting, which the U.S. hosted; and at a central bank conference in Basel—it was evident that most advanced economies are facing…
…make. But I will say this, I’ve spent some time with foreign central bank counterparts, not just in the last 20 years, but over the…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…a change for the better—and we’re just getting started. After all, the central bank need not always and everywhere be the center of attention. I…
…I would say that doesn’t sort of capture the full essence of the discussion. The path to central bank heaven requires delivering on our remit.
Counts: role: fed chair
8 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 8 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…unanimous and unambiguous on it. It has been the practice of this central bank and others to have a range of alternatives. Today we had…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Central Bank |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Central Bank |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Central Bank | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Central Bank | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Central Bank | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Central Bank | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Central Bank” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Central Bank” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Central Bank” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 85%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Central Bank’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/central-bank (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=central%20bank · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP