Will “Tax” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tax” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (20%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 17% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 1.

17%from settlement history only · n=10Next: Press conference, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: role: fed chair
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 6 times
Counts
role: fed chair
Market
7¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

Tax

Probability
17% · n=10
Settled
2/10 (20%)
Last 8 press conferences
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: role: fed chair

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his March press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his January press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · settled yes

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Counts: role: fed chair

2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).

Jerome PowellspeakerqaIn transcript

…reserves are at a low level temporarily. So that’s what happens on Tax Day. People pay a lot of money to the government, reserves drop…

Jerome PowellspeakerqaIn transcript

…temporary few month front-loading to get reserves high enough to get through the, you know, the tax period in mid-April. So that’s what’s happening there.

What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · not said

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What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · not said

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Every settled listing

newest first · 11 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 16, 2026TaxKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026TaxPolymarketNo0
Jul 29, 2026TaxKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026TaxKalshiNo0
Apr 29, 2026TaxKalshiNo0
Mar 18, 2026TaxKalshiNo0
Jan 28, 2026TaxKalshiNo0
Dec 10, 2025TaxKalshiYes–
Oct 29, 2025TaxKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2025TaxKalshiNo0
Jul 30, 2025TaxKalshiYes1

Questions

How often is “Tax” said at the FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tax” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (20%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025.
What is the probability “Tax” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
17%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Tax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/tax (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=tax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP