Will “Obvious” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Obvious” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (25%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Obvious
- Probability
- 38% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…I mentioned earlier, there are no risk-free paths now. It’s not incredibly obvious what to do. So we have to keep our eye on inflation.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Obvious” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Obvious” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (25%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025.
- What is the probability “Obvious” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Obvious’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/obvious (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=obvious · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP