Will “Trade War” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trade War” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (12%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 1.

21%from settlement history only · n=8counts: role: fed chair
Last 10
1/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
role: fed chair
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=trade%20war

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

Trade War

Probability
21% · n=8
Settled
1/8 (12%)
Last 8 press conferences
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: role: fed chair

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his March press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his January press conference? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: role: fed chair

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).

Jerome Powellspeakerqa · 43:44In transcript

…knew it from the very beginning—it was not in the model. A trade war of this scope—we’d never had that in 100 years. And so…

What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · not said

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What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · not said

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Apr 29, 2026Trade WarKalshiNo0
Mar 18, 2026Trade WarKalshiNo0
Jan 28, 2026Trade WarKalshiYes1
Dec 10, 2025Trade WarKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025Trade WarKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2025Trade WarKalshiNo0
May 8, 2025Trade warKalshiNo–
Mar 17, 2025Trade warKalshiNo–

Questions

How often is “Trade War” said at the FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trade War” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (12%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
What is the probability “Trade War” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
21%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Trade War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/trade-war (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=trade%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP