Will “Inflation Expectation” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Inflation Expectation” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 16, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 6.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 63¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Inflation Expectation
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…not broaden, that inflation compensation in market prices stays low, and that inflation expectations remain well anchored. This afternoon, you also received the Summary of…
…hikes cannot fix and should fade on their own, so long as inflation expectations stay anchored. Now that you have hiked rates, do you need…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Inflation Expectation |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Inflation Expectation” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Inflation Expectation” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Inflation Expectation” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Inflation Expectation’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/inflation-expectation (CC BY 4.0)
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