Will “Recession” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Recession” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 1.

20%from settlement history only · n=15Next: Press conference, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: role: fed chair
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no no no no
Streak
not said the last 4 times
Counts
role: fed chair
Market
9¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=recession

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

Recession

Probability
20% · n=15
Settled
5/15 (33%)
Last 8 press conferences
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: role: fed chair

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his March press conference? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: role: fed chair

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).

Jerome PowellspeakerqaIn transcript

…and ’23, and close to 100 percent of economists called for a recession, which didn’t happen. In fact, 2023 was a really strong year. So…

What will Powell say during his January press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · settled no

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What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · not said

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What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · not said

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Every settled listing

newest first · 20 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 16, 2026RecessionKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026RecessionPolymarketNo0
Jul 29, 2026RecessionKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026RecessionKalshiNo0
Apr 29, 2026RecessionKalshiNo0
Mar 18, 2026RecessionPolymarketYes1
Mar 18, 2026RecessionKalshiYes1
Jan 28, 2026RecessionKalshiNo0
Dec 10, 2025RecessionKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025RecessionPolymarketNo0
Oct 29, 2025RecessionKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2025RecessionPolymarketNo0
Sep 17, 2025RecessionKalshiNo0
Jul 30, 2025RecessionPolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2025RecessionPolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2025RecessionKalshiNo0
May 8, 2025RecessionKalshiYes–
May 7, 2025RecessionPolymarketYes2
Mar 19, 2025RecessionPolymarketYes4
Mar 17, 2025RecessionKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Recession” said at the FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Recession” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
What is the probability “Recession” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
20%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Recession’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/recession (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=recession · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP