Will “Tariff Inflation” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff Inflation” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (57%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 4.
- Last 10
- 4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Tariff Inflation
- Probability
- 48% · n=7
- Settled
- 4/7 (57%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…middle of the year progress on tariffs going through once and then tariff inflation coming down. That’s— we should be seeing that. And the rate…
…well—so we have, I think, slightly more confidence that we will see tariff inflation coming down. Not prices, but you won’t see further increases, and…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…clearly, precisely when this will happen. But there’s an expectation that sometime in the middle quarters of the year, we’ll see tariff inflation topping out.
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A).
So with tariff inflation, you know, it takes—there’s the announcement of a tariff and then there’s—you know, they start to take effect. And then it…
…is both to support economic activity but also, you know, make sure that when tariff inflation goes down and disappears, inflation lands around 2 percent.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Tariff Inflation |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Tariff inflation |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Tariff Inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Tariff Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Tariff Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Tariff inflation | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Tariff Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Tariff Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Tariff Inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff Inflation” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff Inflation” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (57%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tariff Inflation” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Tariff Inflation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/tariff-inflation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=tariff%20inflation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP