Will “Tariff” be said 5+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 5+ times at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (75%), most recently on May 7, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 5 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Tariff 5+ times
- Probability
- 61% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Yahoo Finance. Inflation has run up mostly from higher energy prices and tariffs, which some say are supply shocks that rate hikes cannot fix and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…years. Strained supply chains arising from the pandemic, military conflicts, energy supply disruptions, substantial increases in tariff rates, and, yes, the surge in AI-related investment.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…ending in March. This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have…
…core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
…core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 17 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 31 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff 5+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 5+ times at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (75%), most recently on May 7, 2025.
- What is the probability “Tariff 5+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Tariff 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/tariff-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=tariff%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP