FOMC press conference, Oct 24, 2025
Polymarket What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24?
Markets
20 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Banking system 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Reserve 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Macroeconomic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Afternoon | No | 73%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bank 50+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bank 65+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid-19 / Pandemic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economic Cycle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JPMorgan / Bank of America | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Money | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pardon me / Sorry | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stress event | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Beige Book | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-say-during-fed-board-meeting-on-oct-24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP