Will “Softening” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Softening” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (14%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 16% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 20¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Softening
- Probability
- 16% · n=7
- Settled
- 1/7 (14%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening. The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in December and has changed little…
…a very low reading. Just one reading, but it’s an indication of softening. People—part-time for economic reasons, which is a category within the broader U-6…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Softening” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Softening” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (14%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Softening” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 16%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Softening’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/softening (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=softening · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP