Kevin Warsh: FOMC press conference, Oct 28, 2026

Wed, Oct 28Press conferenceHistory onlyScheduledFOMC press conference

Kalshi and Polymarket list 63 words for the FOMC press conference on Oct 28, 2026. Each word shows its history and Parrot’s p, a base rate from settlement history, not a forecast.

Updated

Markets

63 words listed
Listed words: result, and the probability published before the event
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Restrictive open91%n=12 from settlement history80¢ Kalshi
Uncertainty open87%n=7 from settlement history78¢ Kalshi
Central Bank open85%n=5 from settlement history94¢ Kalshi
Shock open85%n=5 from settlement history80¢ Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence open77%n=12 from settlement history82¢ Kalshi
Good Day open73%n=2 from settlement history94¢ Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ timesopen70%n=2 from settlement history48¢ Polymarket
Productivity open67%n=4 from settlement history81¢ Kalshi
Oil open67%n=5 from settlement history56¢ Kalshi
Projection open65%n=13 from settlement history36¢ Kalshi
Independent / Independence open–n=1 too little history for a probability68¢ Kalshi
Inflation Expectation open–n=1 too little history for a probability63¢ Kalshi
Pandemic open56%n=10 from settlement history30¢ Kalshi
Good Afternoon open55%n=18 from settlement history8¢ Kalshi
Credit open54%n=13 from settlement history54¢ Kalshi
Balance Sheet open52%n=13 from settlement history64¢ Kalshi
President open51%n=6 from settlement history57¢ Kalshi
Inflation 20+ timesopen45%n=2 from settlement history46¢ Polymarket
CapEx / Capital Expenditure open–new new word, no probability yet74¢ Polymarket
Conflict / Middle East open–new new word, no probability yet64¢ Polymarket
Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency open–new new word, no probability yet11¢ Polymarket
Good Question open–new new word, no probability yet88¢ Polymarket
Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas open–new new word, no probability yet73¢ Polymarket
Oversight open–new new word, no probability yet29¢ Polymarket
Pandemic / Recession open–new new word, no probability yet28¢ Polymarket
Payroll open–new new word, no probability yet38¢ Polymarket
President / Trump open–new new word, no probability yet70¢ Polymarket
Pressure / Stagflation open–new new word, no probability yet69¢ Polymarket
Price 30+ timesopen–new new word, no probability yet72¢ Polymarket
SI / Super Intelligence open–new new word, no probability yet30¢ Polymarket
Soft / Softening open–new new word, no probability yet28¢ Polymarket
Unchanged / Dissent open–new new word, no probability yet20¢ Polymarket
Family Fight / Family Feud open42%n=2 from settlement history42¢ Kalshi
Anchor / Anchored open40%n=5 from settlement history50¢ Kalshi
Unchanged open39%n=9 from settlement history30¢ Kalshi
Dollar open37%n=5 from settlement history41¢ Kalshi
Commodity open–new new word, no probability yet40¢ Kalshi
Geopolitical open–new new word, no probability yet58¢ Kalshi
Shutdown / Shut Down open28%n=8 from settlement history6¢ Kalshi
Software open–n=1 too little history for a probability18¢ Polymarket
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas open23%n=12 from settlement history20¢ Kalshi
Iran open22%n=5 from settlement history12¢ Kalshi
Diesel open–n=1 too little history for a probability8¢ Kalshi
Japan / Japanese / Yen open–n=1 too little history for a probability2¢ Kalshi
Risk Management open–n=1 too little history for a probability12¢ Kalshi
Recession open20%n=15 from settlement history9¢ Kalshi
QT / Quantitative Tightening open17%n=13 from settlement history8¢ Kalshi
Egg open17%n=12 from settlement history4¢ Kalshi
Tax open17%n=10 from settlement history6¢ Kalshi
Renovation open16%n=7 from settlement history2¢ Kalshi
Softening open16%n=7 from settlement history18¢ Kalshi
Stagflation open16%n=10 from settlement history5¢ Kalshi
Probability open12%n=9 from settlement history12¢ Kalshi
Crypto / Cryptocurrency open9%n=6 from settlement history3¢ Kalshi
Trump open9%n=18 from settlement history6¢ Kalshi
Dissent open8%n=8 from settlement history8¢ Kalshi
ADP open8%n=6 from settlement history2¢ Kalshi
Volatility open6%n=9 from settlement history8¢ Kalshi
Gold open6%n=10 from settlement history4¢ Kalshi
National Debt open6%n=10 from settlement history2¢ Kalshi
QE / Quantitative Easing open6%n=10 from settlement history7¢ Kalshi
Bitcoin open5%n=12 from settlement history2¢ Kalshi
Consumer Confidence open5%n=12 from settlement history4¢ Kalshi

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.

Transcript

Transcript pending. Scheduled for Wed, Oct 28. Expected around Oct 28, 2026 from the Federal Reserve's own video captions after the press conference; the official PDF transcript replaces them a few days later. Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fomc-press-conference:2026-10-28:presser · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fomc-press-conference:2026-10-28:presser · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP