Will “Iran” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (20%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 1.

22%from settlement history only · n=5Next: Press conference, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: role: fed chair
Last 10
1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
role: fed chair
Market
12¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=iran

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

Iran

Probability
22% · n=5
Settled
1/5 (20%)
Last 8 press conferences
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: role: fed chair

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: role: fed chair

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Jerome PowellspeakerqaIn transcript

…had the invasion of Ukraine, we had tariffs, and now we have Iran and the oil, you know, the oil spike. So those—every, every supply…

RICHARD ESCOBEDOreporterqaIn transcript

…prices, both of which are up dramatically because of the war in Iran. And so I wonder, are you seeing that weigh down consumer spending…

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

What will Powell say during his March press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his January press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · not listed

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What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 16, 2026IranKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026IranPolymarketNo0
Jul 29, 2026IranKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026IranKalshiNo0
Apr 29, 2026IranPolymarketYes1
Apr 29, 2026IranKalshiYes1
Mar 18, 2026IranPolymarketNo0
Mar 18, 2026IranKalshiNo0

Questions

How often is “Iran” said at the FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (20%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
What is the probability “Iran” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
22%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP