Will “Productivity” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Productivity” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (75%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 7.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 81¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Productivity
- Probability
- 67% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…remains elevated—owing, in part, to geopolitical developments—domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth—strong; and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace…
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A).
…that you got at two o’clock, the economy—output is solid. Capex and productivity are strong— labor markets—solid, steady. The bond market—the Treasury market—it seems to…
But they matter more—what are the big questions? What’s really happening with productivity? What’s really happening with demographics? What’s really happening to the global economy…
Counts: role: fed chair
5 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment—both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the…
…balance sheet; third, our use and reliance on existing data sources; fourth, productivity and jobs in an era of transformation; and last, the Fed’s inflation…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Productivity |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Productivity |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Productivity | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Productivity | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Productivity | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Productivity | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Productivity” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Productivity” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (75%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Productivity” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Productivity’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/productivity (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=productivity · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP