Will “Balance of Risk” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Balance of Risk” was said at the FOMC press conference on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 84% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 8/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 8 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Balance of Risk
- Probability
- 84% · n=8
- Settled
- 8/8 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will…
…incoming data implications for—and the implications for the outlook and the balance of risks. Haven’t made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is…
Counts: role: fed chair
4 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…elevated. In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided…
…with downside risks to employment having risen in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Our framework calls for us to take a balanced…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Balance of Risk |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Balance of Risk | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Balance of Risk | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Balance of Risk | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Balance of Risk | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Balance of Risk | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| May 8, 2025 | Balance of risk | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Balance of risk | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Balance of Risk” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Balance of Risk” was said at the FOMC press conference on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Balance of Risk” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 84%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Balance of Risk’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/balance-of-risk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=balance%20of%20risk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP