Will “Downbeat” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Downbeat” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Downbeat
- Probability
- 23% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…out surveys that sound really negative and then spending. So there’s been a disconnect for some time between downbeat surveys and reasonably good spending data.
…spending data. That’s the allure. In this case, that gives a more downbeat read. So people just have—again, we’ve cut 50 more basis points in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Downbeat” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Downbeat” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025.
- What is the probability “Downbeat” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Downbeat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/downbeat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=downbeat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP