Will “Inflation” be said 40+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said 40+ times at the FOMC press conference on 9 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (60%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (40+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Inflation 40+ times
- Probability
- 40% · n=15
- Settled
- 9/15 (60%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
18 counted (11 in prepared remarks, 7 in Q&A); 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
…pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. But inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the…
…congressional remit is in good shape. Yet, for more than five years, inflation has been running above target. So our predominant focus is on the…
Counts: named speaker only
28 counted (6 in prepared remarks, 22 in Q&A); 12 by speakers the rule does not count.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee remains resolute. You’ve heard this before, but we will deliver price stability. As…
…clarity. For some households, businesses, and market professionals, five years of high inflation have left a mistaken impression that’s hard to shake—that the Fed’s implicit…
Counts: named speaker only
19 counted (7 in prepared remarks, 12 in Q&A); 13 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed’s long-stated inflation goal of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Inflation 40+ times |  Polymarket | No | 18 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | No | 28 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | No | 19 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | No | 33 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 50 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | No | 32 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 62 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 49 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 50 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 57 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Inflation 40+ | Polymarket | Yes | 48 |
| May 7, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | No | 37 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 68 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 48 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Inflation 40+ times |  Kalshi | Yes | 48 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Inflation 40+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 101 |
Questions
- How often is “Inflation 40+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said 40+ times at the FOMC press conference on 9 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (60%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Inflation 40+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Inflation 40+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/inflation-40plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=inflation%20%2840%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP