Will “China” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “China” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

18%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 6 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

China

Probability
18% · n=6
Settled
0/6 (0%)
Last 8 press conferences
said in 0 of 5 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his March press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his January press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · not listed

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What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Mar 18, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo0
Jul 30, 2025ChinaPolymarketNo0
Jul 30, 2025ChinaKalshiNo0
Jun 18, 2025ChinaPolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2025ChinaKalshiNo0
May 8, 2025ChinaKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2025ChinaPolymarketNo0
Mar 17, 2025ChinaKalshiNo–

Questions

How often is “China” said at the FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “China” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025.
What is the probability “China” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
18%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/china (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP