Will “Unchanged” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Unchanged” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (44%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 4.
- Last 10
- 4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 29¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Unchanged
- Probability
- 39% · n=9
- Settled
- 4/9 (44%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…global energy prices. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…remains somewhat elevated. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote…
…of this year and 3.1 percent at the end of next year, unchanged from December. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Unchanged |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unchanged | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Unchanged | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Unchanged | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Unchanged | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Unchanged | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Unchanged |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Unchanged | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Unchanged | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Unchanged | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Unchanged” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Unchanged” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (44%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Unchanged” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Unchanged’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/unchanged (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=unchanged · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP