Will “Immigration” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Immigration” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jun 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Immigration
- Probability
- 59% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
…a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
…a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.…
…a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.…
…a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2025 | Immigration |  Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Immigration |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Immigration” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Immigration” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jun 18, 2025.
- What is the probability “Immigration” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Immigration’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/immigration (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=immigration · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP