Will “Probability” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Probability” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (11%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 12% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 0.

12%from settlement history only · n=9Next: Press conference, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: role: fed chair
Last 10
1/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 8 times
Counts
role: fed chair
Market
12¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=probability

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

Probability

Probability
12% · n=9
Settled
1/9 (11%)
Last 8 press conferences
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: role: fed chair

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not said

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his March press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his January press conference? · not said

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What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · not said

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What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · not said

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What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: role: fed chair

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).

Jerome Powellspeakerqa · 21:04In transcript

…people, as always, to look at the SEP as—through the lens of probability. And so there are—there are different possible outcomes and likelihoods rather than…

Every settled listing

newest first · 12 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 16, 2026ProbabilityKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026ProbabilityKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026ProbabilityKalshiNo0
Apr 29, 2026ProbabilityKalshiNo0
Mar 18, 2026ProbabilityKalshiNo0
Jan 28, 2026ProbabilityPolymarketNo0
Jan 28, 2026ProbabilityKalshiNo0
Dec 10, 2025ProbabilityPolymarketNo0
Dec 10, 2025ProbabilityKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025ProbabilityKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2025ProbabilityPolymarketYes1
Sep 17, 2025ProbabilityKalshiYes1

Questions

How often is “Probability” said at the FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Probability” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (11%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025.
What is the probability “Probability” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
12%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Probability’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/probability (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=probability · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP