Will “Spending” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Spending” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jul 30, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Spending
- Probability
- 33% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated—owing, in part, to geopolitical developments—domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth—strong; and capital investment is robust. Job…
…appointed to the task forces? In particular, given Marc Andreessen’s substantial political spending—$25 million in just the past year to back candidates who oppose stricter…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand at…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. In…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. In…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Spending” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Spending” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability “Spending” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Spending’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/spending (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=spending · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP