Will “Median” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Median” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (56%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 5/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Median
- Probability
- 50% · n=9
- Settled
- 5/9 (56%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
5 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…housing sector has remained weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4 percent this year and…
…growth, generally show little change in recent months. In our SEP, the median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.4 percent at the end of…
Counts: role: fed chair
7 counted (6 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…next quarter, reflecting the reopening. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7 percent this year and…
In our SEP, the median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.5 percent at the end of this year and edges down thereafter. Inflation has…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…that 3 to 4 percent area. You’re there now. You’re above the median number for the Committee. But I think there are people on the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Median |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Median | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Median |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Median | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Median | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Median | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Median | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Median | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Median | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Median | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Median | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| May 8, 2025 | Median | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Median” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Median” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (56%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Median” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Median’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/median (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=median · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP