Will “Restrictive” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Restrictive” was said at the FOMC press conference on 12 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 91% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 8.
- Last 10
- 10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 10 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 80¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Restrictive
- Probability
- 91% · n=12
- Settled
- 12/12 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Hole, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the Committee. So we removed a…
I’ve described previously I found it difficult to describe financial conditions as restrictive. I think I said I was hard pressed. What I heard around…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…ever to be reacting to real-time events. So they’re gauging themselves the—how restrictive the Treasury curve should be. And that, I think, has been a…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…but broadly I would say, there, Fed policy appears to be somewhat restrictive. I would have a hard time managing to say those words if…
…I guess on the current policy settings then, I am curious how restrictive you think things are at the current moment, given the flow of…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Restrictive |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Restrictive |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| May 8, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Restrictive” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Restrictive” was said at the FOMC press conference on 12 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Restrictive” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 91%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Restrictive’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/restrictive (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=restrictive · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP