Will “QT / Quantitative Tightening” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “QT / Quantitative Tightening” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (23%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 17% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 8¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
QT / Quantitative Tightening
- Probability
- 17% · n=13
- Settled
- 3/13 (23%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…“concerned.” So what really happened is this: Balance sheet shrinkage, sometimes called QT, went on. We had a framework in place for monitoring it, and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | QT / Quantitative Tightening |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Quantitative Tightening / QT | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 8, 2025 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | QT / Quantitative Tightening | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “QT / Quantitative Tightening” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “QT / Quantitative Tightening” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (23%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025.
- What is the probability “QT / Quantitative Tightening” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 17%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘QT / Quantitative Tightening’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/qt-or-quantitative-tightening (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=qt%20%2F%20quantitative%20tightening · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP