Will “Payroll” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, no Kalshi or Polymarket mention market on “Payroll” at the FOMC press conference has settled yet.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 38¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Payroll
- Probability
- 45% · prior
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…receive, that we’re waiting on, the first Friday after the month, the payroll index, or something else, that might be an echo of history that’s…
…changed little in recent months. Job gains have remained low. Total nonfarm payrolls declined at an average pace of 22,000 per month over the last…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…market has continued. Unemployment is now up three-tenths from June through September. Payroll jobs averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think there’s an overstatement…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…say, then again, we don’t have—we didn’t get the September employment report, payroll report, but we do get—we look at the unemployment insurance claims, initial…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Questions
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Payroll’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/payroll (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=payroll · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP