Will “Tariff” be said 15+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 15+ times at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (25%), most recently on Jun 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (15+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Tariff 15+ times
- Probability
- 31% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 3 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
12 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 10 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…up, on balance, over the course of this year on news about tariffs, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Beyond the next year…
…funds rate by ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent. Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher…
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 6 in Q&A); 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
…up, on balance, over the course of this year on news about tariffs, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Beyond the next year…
…continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods, but…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Tariff 15+ times |  Polymarket | No | 12 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Tariff 15+ times | Polymarket | No | 8 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Tariff 15+ times | Polymarket | No | 14 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Tariff 15+ | Polymarket | Yes | 30 |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff 15+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 15+ times at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (25%), most recently on Jun 18, 2025.
- What is the probability “Tariff 15+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Tariff 15+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/tariff-15plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=tariff%20%2815%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP