Will “Real Wage” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Real Wage” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jun 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Real Wage
- Probability
- 37% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…inflation coming out of the pandemic. And everywhere people are feeling like they—real wages have been going up in the United States now for three…
…policy is intended to do that—but also have a strong economy where real wages are going up, where people are getting jobs and earning money.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Real Wage” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Real Wage” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jun 18, 2025.
- What is the probability “Real Wage” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Real Wage’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/real-wage (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=real%20wage · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP