Will “Independent / Independence” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Independent / Independence” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 16, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 68¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Independent / Independence
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the President. And I’m not a Wall Street newsletter. Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is…
…this post, I spent a lot of time talking about it publicly. Independence of the Federal Reserve is about staying in our lane. We care…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Independent / Independence |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Independent / Independence” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Independent / Independence” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Independent / Independence” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Independent / Independence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/independence-or-independent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=independence%20%2F%20independent · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP