Will “Balance Sheet” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Balance Sheet” was said at the FOMC press conference on 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (69%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 4.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 67¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Balance Sheet
- Probability
- 52% · n=13
- Settled
- 9/13 (69%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…primary monetary policy instrument, how much accommodation are we getting from the balance sheet? In all of this, our work is advancing at the Fed.…
…through lending channels and credit channels—maybe confidence channels and foreign exchange. The balance sheet probably works through some other channels, like signaling and portfolio balance.…
Counts: role: fed chair
5 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…the broad conduct of monetary policy: First, Fed communications; second, the Fed’s balance sheet; third, our use and reliance on existing data sources; fourth, productivity…
…mentioned a few moments ago. The second task force, the one on balance sheet policy, will review the benefits and risks of the current ample-reserves…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
Well, I wouldn’t say “concerned.” So what really happened is this: Balance sheet shrinkage, sometimes called QT, went on. We had a framework in place…
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Balance Sheet |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Balance Sheet |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | Yes | 19 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 8, 2025 | Balance sheet | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 7, 2025 | Balance Sheet | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Balance Sheet | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Balance Sheet” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Balance Sheet” was said at the FOMC press conference on 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (69%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Balance Sheet” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Balance Sheet’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/balance-sheet (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=balance%20sheet · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP