Will “Goods inflation” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Goods inflation” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Goods inflation
- Probability
- 27% · n=9
- Settled
- 3/9 (33%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
4 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A).
…we see this year is progress on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation as the one-time effects on prices of tariffs go through the…
…and later last year, we’re waiting for that to go through the system so that goods inflation will return closer to what it’s always been.
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…inflation coming down, and that’s offset by increases in goods, and that goods inflation is entirely in sectors where there are tariffs. So that does…
…Chris Rugaber, Associated Press. You mentioned on inflation services inflation being low, goods inflation looking like maybe it’ll peak. We had the wages report you…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: role: fed chair
4 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A).
…can take goods—just sort of the broad goods category, and last year goods inflation was negative. If you go back 25 years, that was the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Goods inflation |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Goods Inflation |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Goods inflation | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Goods inflation” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Goods inflation” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Goods inflation” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Goods inflation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/goods-inflation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=goods%20inflation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP