Will “Unemployment” be said 8+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Unemployment” was said 8+ times at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 7, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (8+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Unemployment 8+ times
- Probability
- 67% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. But inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…recent shocks, the trends are positive and reveal solid growth. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…investment—both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up…
…expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2025 | Unemployment 8+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 19 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Unemployment 8+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 12 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Unemployment 8+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 14 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Unemployment 8+ times |  Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
Questions
- How often is “Unemployment 8+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Unemployment” was said 8+ times at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2025 (100%), most recently on May 7, 2025.
- What is the probability “Unemployment 8+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Unemployment 8+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/unemployment-8plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=unemployment%20%288%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP