Will “Projection” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Projection” was said at the FOMC press conference on 10 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (77%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 6.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 36¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Projection
- Probability
- 65% · n=13
- Settled
- 10/13 (77%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
4 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…that inflation compensation in market prices stays low, and that inflation expectations remain well anchored. This afternoon, you also received the Summary of Economic Projections.
…in June, I said I would faithfully discharge the summary of their projections, so here goes. In the summary’s median projections, real GDP rises at…
Counts: role: fed chair
4 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…policy conjuncture. This afternoon, you also received the usual Summary of Economic Projections. It’s been the practice of this Committee for participants to submit these…
…views on the SEP, at least as currently structured. In the median projections, real GDP rises at 2.2 percent this year, 2.3 percent next year,…
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…in the housing sector has remained weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4 percent this…
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Projection |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Projection |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Projection | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Projection | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Projection | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| May 8, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Projection” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Projection” was said at the FOMC press conference on 10 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (77%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Projection” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Projection’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/projection (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=projection · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP