Will “Employment / Unemployment” be said 20+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Employment / Unemployment” was said 20+ times at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 73% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (20+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Employment / Unemployment 20+ times
- Probability
- 73% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 3 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
24 counted (14 in prepared remarks, 10 in Q&A); 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
…and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Although important…
…of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our…
Counts: named speaker only
32 counted (13 in prepared remarks, 19 in Q&A); 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
…and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the…
…a touch stronger than projected in June. In the labor market, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in August but remains little changed…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | Employment / Unemployment 20+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 24 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Unemployment / Employment 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 32 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Employment / Unemployment 20+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 30 |
Questions
- How often is “Employment / Unemployment 20+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Employment / Unemployment” was said 20+ times at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025.
- What is the probability “Employment / Unemployment 20+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 73%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Employment / Unemployment 20+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/employment-or-unemployment-20plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=employment%20%2F%20unemployment%20%2820%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP