Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (38%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 3.
- Last 10
- 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 7¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 28% · n=8
- Settled
- 3/8 (38%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. The temporary shutdown of the federal government likely weighed on economic activity last quarter, but…
…One is—so we’re getting through the distortions in the data from the shutdown. What—however big they were in November, they’re smaller in December. So we’re…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector remains weak. The temporary shutdown of the federal government has likely weighed on economic activity in the…
…percent. I mentioned that the SEP median is 1.7 for this year—growth—and 2.3 for next year. Yet actually—some of that is due to the shutdown.
Counts: role: fed chair
5 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public- and private-sector data that have remained available suggest that the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Shut down / Shutdown |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut down | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
Questions
- How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said at the FOMC press conference on 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (38%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP