Will “Default” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Default” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Default
- Probability
- 21% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…manageable levels of debt. At the lower-income spectrum, you are seeing rising defaults, particularly in subprime auto, but, nonetheless, in the aggregate pretty good. And…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Default” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Default” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025.
- What is the probability “Default” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Default’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/default (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=default · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP