Will “Layoff” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Layoff” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (57%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Layoff
- Probability
- 43% · n=7
- Settled
- 4/7 (57%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. Inflation has moved up recently and is…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. In our SEP, the median projection of…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Other indicators, including openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, show little change in recent months. Inflation…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Layoff |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Layoff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Layoff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Layoff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Layoff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Layoff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Layoffs |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Layoff | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Layoff” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Layoff” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (57%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Layoff” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Layoff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/layoff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=layoff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP