Will “Trump” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (6%), most recently on Jul 30, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 9% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 7¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Trump
- Probability
- 9% · n=18
- Settled
- 1/18 (6%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…consumers? And I have to ask, what is your message here to President Trump, who has repeatedly called to cut interest rates, not raise them?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…on the Board, you’re actually taking a political act and denying President Trump the majority of the Board, which, as President, he would have if…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Thanks much. Elizabeth Schulze with ABC News. President Trump says that oil prices and overall inflation will go down very rapidly as soon as the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
If I could—if President Trump does pick a new Fed Chairman before May, what does that look like? How would you work with that person,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 27 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Trump |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Trump |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 8, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 7, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Trump | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Trump” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (6%), most recently on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability “Trump” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 9%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP