Will “Tariff” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said at the FOMC press conference on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (100%), most recently on Jul 30, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 75% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 6.
- Last 10
- 8/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 8 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Tariff
- Probability
- 75% · n=8
- Settled
- 8/8 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Yahoo Finance. Inflation has run up mostly from higher energy prices and tariffs, which some say are supply shocks that rate hikes cannot fix and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…years. Strained supply chains arising from the pandemic, military conflicts, energy supply disruptions, substantial increases in tariff rates, and, yes, the surge in AI-related investment.
…ending in March. This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have…
…core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
…core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2025 | Tariff |  Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 30 |
| May 8, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 7, 2025 | Tariff |  Polymarket | Yes | 17 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Tariff | Polymarket | Yes | 31 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Tariff | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Tariff | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said at the FOMC press conference on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (100%), most recently on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability “Tariff” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 75%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP