Will “Credit” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Credit” was said at the FOMC press conference on 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (54%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 4.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 53¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Credit
- Probability
- 54% · n=13
- Settled
- 7/13 (54%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…has improved in recent months and is pointing in a good direction. Credit flows have been robust, particularly for businesses. And, as I said at…
…achieve price stability on a timelier basis. We aim to ensure that credit and financial conditions are consistent over time with our mandate, that relative…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…through different transmission mechanisms. The interest rates work through lending channels and credit channels—maybe confidence channels and foreign exchange. The balance sheet probably works…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…are still spending. And that’s what—that’s what the banks will tell you, credit card companies will tell you. The retail sales numbers that we got…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Credit |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Credit | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Credit | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Credit | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Credit | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Credit | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Credit | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Credit | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Credit | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Credit | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Credit | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 8, 2025 | Credit | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Credit | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Credit” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Credit” was said at the FOMC press conference on 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (54%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Credit” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Credit’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/credit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=credit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP