Will “Conflict / Middle East” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 25, 2026, no Kalshi or Polymarket mention market on “Conflict / Middle East” at the FOMC press conference has settled yet.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 64¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Conflict / Middle East
- Probability
- 45% · prior
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…shocks of recent years. Strained supply chains arising from the pandemic, military conflicts, energy supply disruptions, substantial increases in tariff rates, and, yes, the surge…
…a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment—both strong. Job gains…
…progress toward our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Questions
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Conflict / Middle East’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/conflict-or-middle-east (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=conflict%20%2F%20middle%20east · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP