Will “Dollar” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Dollar” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 41¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Dollar
- Probability
- 37% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…sellers meet at prices for Treasuries—for the foreign exchange value of the dollar. And then trying to judge for ourselves—what does that mean about our…
…if I look at the Treasury curve, if I look at the dollar, if I look at a lot of things that are internals inside…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…time. So they’re, they’re not sitting there waiting for oil to go over $70 a barrel and then they’re going to start drilling or whatever.
…course, people are already seeing gas prices—gas prices are up almost a dollar a gallon. We hope that isn’t for a long period of time,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Dollar” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Dollar” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Dollar” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Dollar’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/dollar (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=dollar · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP