Will “Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (17%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 20¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
- Probability
- 23% · n=12
- Settled
- 2/12 (17%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
5 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 5 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
We know—we’re very well aware that people are experiencing higher gas prices all over the country now. And that hurts. That’s—and these are—those hikes may…
I don’t know what gas prices are going to do for the rest of the year. And it will depend on how long the Strait…
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
…if we have high—if we have a long period of much higher gas prices, that’s going to weigh on consumption, that will weigh on disposable…
…to characterize them in any way. Of course, people are already seeing gas prices—gas prices are up almost a dollar a gallon. We hope that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 8, 2025 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (17%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/gas-or-gasoline-or-natural-gas (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=gas%20%2F%20gasoline%20%2F%20natural%20gas · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP