Will “Dot Plot” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Dot Plot” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (22%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Dot Plot
- Probability
- 30% · n=9
- Settled
- 2/9 (22%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…was that making, making changes—making really large changes, for example, to the dot plot or the SEP, it didn’t have—we couldn’t come up with anything…
…And, you know, I was never the world’s biggest fan of the dot plot, but you can’t—you can’t beat something with nothing. And, you know,…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…supported more cuts, and some didn’t, as you will see from the dot plot. So it’s just the way—that’s just the way it is. I…
…meeting. And also, on the flip side, to just explain why the dot plots are really so scattered between—you know, someone even expecting rates to…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Dot Plot |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Dot Plot | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Dot Plot | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Dot Plot | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Dot Plot | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Dot Plot | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Dot Plot | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 8, 2025 | Dot plot | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Dot plot | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Dot Plot” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Dot Plot” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (22%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Dot Plot” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Dot Plot’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/dot-plot (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=dot%20plot · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP