Will “Pandemic” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Pandemic” was said at the FOMC press conference on 7 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (70%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 30¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Pandemic
- Probability
- 56% · n=10
- Settled
- 7/10 (70%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…the economic shocks of recent years. Strained supply chains arising from the pandemic, military conflicts, energy supply disruptions, substantial increases in tariff rates, and, yes,…
Counts: role: fed chair
5 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 5 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…that. I don’t think that anything that happened to create the global pandemic inflation was in any way related to overweighting the employment market. I…
…since we have had to worry about that. Well, actually, during the pandemic recovery, the labor market was super overheated and tight, and that’s when…
Counts: role: fed chair
4 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A).
…years, and we’ve actually had—we had the tariff shock, we had the pandemic, and now we have an energy shock of some size and duration.…
…was a time when it’s very hard to do it. During the pandemic, we actually took one meeting off, I think. But we don’t like…
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pandemic |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pandemic |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Pandemic | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Pandemic | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Pandemic | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Pandemic | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Pandemic | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Pandemic | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Pandemic | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Pandemic | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Pandemic | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Pandemic | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Pandemic | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Pandemic | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Pandemic | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Pandemic | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Pandemic | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Pandemic | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Pandemic” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Pandemic” was said at the FOMC press conference on 7 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (70%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Pandemic” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Pandemic’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/pandemic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=pandemic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP